Tinubu’s Administration: 4Ds Of The Nigerian Foreign Agenda, By Amb. Tuggar
Let me begin by saying what an honour it is to be asked to be the guest speaker amidst such esteemed scholars and seasoned diplomats, being Minister notwithstanding. It is equally gratifying to have the lecture session chaired by Professor Anthony Asiwaju, the foremost scholar on border studies of our time, and I am proud to say that I drank from his fountain of knowledge some years back when I did some research on the impact of colonial legacies on the diplomacy of the Lake Chad basin region. I remain eternally indebted to him.
My task here today is to inform on the foreign policy agenda of the government for the next three and a half years of the administration. This becomes all the more necessary when one considers that many are fond of saying “Nigeria does not have a foreign policy” or “we need to develop foreign policy objectives.” As such, my starting point is to define foreign policy, which in a nutshell is the strategy or approach chosen by the national government to achieve its goals in its relations with external entities. Or at least that is how IR theorist Steve Smith and his fellow travellers define it. With regards to policy itself, I have always been pulled to Robert Dahl’s explanation that a policy is an attempt to cope with the future, not simply to account for the past. To be concerned with policy is to focus on the attempt to produce intended effects. Hence policy is and must be causality thinking. Suffice it to say that the Tinubu Administration is committed to producing intended effects and is focused on causality thinking.
With regards to Nigeria’s foreign policy objectives, they exist and remain immovable because they are enshrined in our Constitution; they are, in summary; to promote and protect Nigeria’s national interest, to promote African integration and support African unity, promote international co-operation for the consolidation of universal peace and mutual respect among all nations and elimination of discrimination in all its manifestations. Bearing in mind that Nigeria’s Constitution is a purposive one and not simply regulative, there is more to do in terms of proactiveness to deliver on these objectives. The Renewed Hope Agenda that catalogued President Bola Tinubu’s promises to Nigerians during the Presidential campaign further elucidated three objectives: to protect against all forms of external aggression; promote the best possible outcomes for Nigeria in all engagements with other nations; improve Nigeria’s standing and dignity among the comity of Nations.
While I was still serving as Nigeria’s Ambassador to Germany during the transition period, I was fortunate enough to be asked to chair the sub-committee to work on the in-coming administration’s foreign policy agenda and we set about using the documents described above and many more to come up with the 4-D Diplomacy Agenda for the new government. This was done in consultation with the larger Policy Advisory Committee of the Transition and of course the President-elect. For those who may still not be familiar with the 4-Ds, they are: Democracy, Development, Demography and Diaspora. And I will expound on them next. But I urge you to bear in mind that we are not simply sloganeering, but reducing a whole set key segment issues, root cause analyses based on prevailing state of affairs, and action plans of programmes into more manageable and comprehensible headlines. And the kernel of the 4Ds is Strategic Autonomy in an increasingly polarised global setting, as Nigeria seeks to maintain its independence and freedom of choice to deal with all friendly nations. Describe it, if you will as Nigeria continuing in its tradition of non-alignment.
Democracy
When we say Democracy, we are referring to a pathway to enhanced peace and stability in Africa and around the world. As flawed as the Democratic Peace Thesis may be, it is safe to say that mature liberal democracies are less prone to conflict with each other and more likely to promote human rights. The quantitative and interminable Correlates of War project speaks to this. But importantly, the seeming domino effect of military coups and unconstitutional changes in government in our West African region and beyond calls for proactive diplomacy in order to reverse the trend and restore peace. The threat to peace from terrorism and irridentism in the Sahel can only be countered with a solid foundational basis of constitutional governance, strong democratic institutions and an alliance of democratic countries in the region. The illusion that military regimes may somehow be better equipped to fight terrorists and separatists remains just that; soldiers are prone to turning their guns on each other instead of terrorists, in their contestation for control of the capital metropolis. This leaves the periphery and border areas more at the mercy of non-state actors, creating more insecurity and instability to neighbouring countries and the region as a whole. We can all see how many countercoups have been encountered in West Africa and perhaps more to come. Burkina Faso currently only controls less than 40% of its territory.
It is therefore incumbent on Nigeria as Africa’s largest democracy (and serendipitously Chair of ECOWAS) to pull its weight ally with other democracies and constitutional governments to reverse this deadly trend. Nigeria and ECOWAS’s role in the successful elections in Liberia and President George Weah’s noble concession is an indication of what can be achieved through Diplomacy. But the Democracy in 4-D also calls for Democracy in global organisations and institutions that remain exclusive clubs under sketchy criteria. 4-D requires working for Nigeria’s permanent membership of the UNSC, G20 and all other relevant groupings where democratic norms, size of population and size of the economy ought to be the yardstick for membership. Nigeria’s agitation for a permanent UNSC seat is historic; President Tinubu unequivocally demanded membership of the G20 during its 80th Summit in India, AU admittance notwithstanding, the 4-D Tinubu Doctrine is at work.
DEVELOPMENT
Development is the next D and for this, I thank members of ARCAN, who during a meeting with the Ministry advised that Development should be placed second on the list for the avoidance of any doubt relating to its importance as a priority for Nigeria. Let me also say at this juncture that part of the agenda of the Ministry was to hold a 4-day retreat on the 4-Ds (yes, we do things in 4s and Ds) with relevant stakeholders such as the National Assembly Foreign Relations Committee leadership, agencies under the ministry the SSAP, the ministries retired permsecs, ARCAN and several others in order to synthesise thoughts and concepts. This took place in the first week of October and I am happy to report to you that it was enriching and helped us to tweak the 4Ds for implementation.
Development seeks to use diplomacy to achieve double digit growth for Nigeria by combining Agriculture, Infrastructure and Industrialisation. Attracting foreign investment in agriculture would help to close the gap between metro and rural areas and a bifurcation that contributes to Nigeria’s poor showing on the poverty index. Food security is first on the Tinubu 8-point agenda and engaging India on enhancing millet production securing nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium, improving NASENI’s capacity for reverse technology for revamping tractors and farming equipment all falls within this purview and is ongoing, with trips to India, China and Europe and Brazil in the horizon. The INDORAMA expansion at Eleme is instructive.
Infrastructure investment growth could give us as much as 10-12% growth and creates jobs faster, gives short-term growth effect quicker and improves efficiency in the long-term. For this, we intend to continue our infrastructure projects with China, we are engaging the EU on the Global Gateway Initiative and the need for an EU Export Credit Agency to mitigate risk. We are also explaining to partner countries how Nigeria’s approach is to meet them part of the way, when it comes to risk mitigation, because we have certain sectoral funds designed specifically to provide the requisite insurance against risk; NIRSAL, NCDF, USPF, NCDF and so forth. 4-D was recently at play when an agreement was signed between Geo-Scan Services of Germany and the Solid Minerals Development Fund on exploration and development of Lithium for renewable battery production.
As a former Ambassador to Germany, I am equally happy to be part of the 4-D effort to bring the Siemens Electrification project back on track. It is pure and simple; no electricity, no development. And for this, 4-D seeks to use diplomacy to improve Nigeria’s energy mix; engagements to expand Nigeria’s solar energy production are on course and Nigeria recently signed a $500mn renewable energy financing deal during one of the President’s trips.
Climate Change falls within the Development ambit of the 4-Ds and with one of the earliest and most comprehensive energy transition plans in the developing world, Nigeria perhaps needs to blow its own trumpet a bit more on the global stage. The recently concluded COP 28 can be deemed to be a successful out for Nigeria as it lent its voice further to countries putting their money where their mouth is and advancing the conversation on loss and damage and gas as a transition fuel. Sitting on some 200TCF of gas reserves, we have no alternative but to use our comparative advantage to industrialise as well as to export energy. Manufacturing has a longer value chain than agriculture and infrastructure when you count packaging, additives and even power. Manufacturing also gives people higher income and improved skills than agriculture. The Tinubu administration also scored another recent victory with the signing of an agreement for a mini-LNG project for export to Europe.
DEMOGRAPHY
Demography within the 4-D speaks to Nigeria’s huge population as an asset and not a liability. We are 220 million and expected to become the third largest nation on earth by the year 2050 and as such must prepare to ensure we peak at the right time. Our demographic dependency ratio must be such that we can afford ourselves. For this, we must take advantage of our youth bulge to generate income and growth for now and for the future. Leapfrogging is the focus, where we intend to use technology to skip certain stages and fast-track development. For this, the Foreign Affairs Ministry is collaborating with the Ministry of Digital Economy, MITI and others, and it is using diplomacy to help create jobs for young Nigerians in the space of Business Process Outsourcing and even Human in the Loop- where large numbers of people are required to teach Artificial Intelligence.
Another dimension of Demography within the 4-D context is the African Continental Free Trade Area, bringing together 1.2bn people with a combined GDP of $3.4tn into a single market. We have to bear in mind that only 17% of Africa’s exports stay within the continent, compared with 69% for Europe, and 59% for Asia. It is expected that removing tariffs through the AFCFTA would increase the value of intra-African trade by as much as $70bn.
Demography also requires that Nigeria works with other demographically large nations to not only learn from them but to also gain from each other. And this is where participating in global decision-making fora come in once again. Bear in mind that more than 60% of resolutions in the UN Security Council resolutions are to do with Africa.
DIASPORA
There are millions of Nigerians living around the world and they remain the first point of contact with Nigeria for many. The impressions they give of our country is what counts as our image and it is important for us to work on that. It is the intention of the Ministry to improve the services it renders to Nigerians abroad and indeed all others. This comes with its own challenges of paucity of funds but we intend to think out of the box to make the necessary improvements. Consular services and training come into play for both the Missions and the Ministry. We inherited a laudable Citizens help desk project from my predecessor and we intend to embellish upon it. Our approach is to ensure that we are not working in silos and I am happy to say that the agencies under the ministry have fully integrated the 4-Ds into their programmes. The DG of the Technical Aid Corps has set about implementing the concept of manpower provision through mediated and negotiated terms that would make Nigerians hold their heads up high when they are working outside the country. Technical Aid Corps is the unsung hero of Nigerian soft power diplomacy where Nigeria continues to support southern hemispheric countries with skilled workers. We intend to expand on this and tackle irregular migration through such an approach. We can provide the skilled doctors and nurses if others are prepared to invest in our medical training schools and if our skilled workers will be allowed to work abroad under dignified terms with their families. Bottom line is, the key to tackling irregular migration is Development.
Let me end by saying that none of this will be possible without reforming our workplace- the Ministry- into a technology-driven environment with the right bureaucracy to achieve our SMART objectives. The reform is already in place and we are improving the working terms and conditions of the ministry’s staff. We also intend to bring back the system of Undersecretaries in the New Year, with the return of several senior ambassadors. We urge all of you to lend a hand in making the Tinubu Doctrine a success.
I THANK YOU ALL FOR LISTENING