Politics played by corrupt individuals, religious bigots, tribalists and regional bloc control never allows coalition to work amongst political parties to unseat a bad government. Attitude is the sublime element needed to drive a smooth democratic process which the majority of Nigerian politicians don’t have. I will discuss some key points below why the coalition of political parties ahead of the 2027 general election may not work out.
i. In a countdown to the 2023 presidential primary election of the PDP, we clearly saw a case where northern brotherhood was placed above Nigerian brotherhood. I’m talking about the scenario between AminuTambuwal and Nyesome Wike. Tambuwal enjoyed so much support from Wike and PDP in general. He was the strongest man holding PDP together while the turbulence that ensued after losing out to APC in 2015. Atiku Abubakar has only shown to be a regular customer of presidential ticket. When it was time to run for the primaries. Tambuwal who, after enjoying so much support from Wike, forgot the Nigerian brotherhood in search of northern brotherhood in Abubakar Atiku hence betraying Wike in the PDP primary that produced Atiku.
ii. Northern Bloc Vote Mentality
The average northern politician and majority of the electorates believe that the emergence of a northern candidate is a smooth pathway to victory in Nigerian presidential election because the north seemed to have a higher voting population than the South. In the last presidential election figures, we saw less than 30% of the voting population across the country. Over 70 million people didn’t vote majority of which are from the north.
To buttress this further, we saw the coalition between Peter Obi and Kwankwaso failing to yield result because of the northern mentality exercised by Kwankwaso who saw himself as a much better presidential candidate than Peter Obi and so refused to stand as a running mate to Peter Obi. What happened at the end of the election? Kwankwaso saw the results and wondered how Peter Obi was able to give him a wide gap. Even in Lagos, Obi surprised APC in their own headquarters and the supposed den of Jagaban.
To this end, a coalition of political parties will not work where the northerners refuse to burry the idea of “I must be the candidate”. Coalition without unity is wasted effort. All the politicians in the forefront of the coalition movement look overambitious and that will surely affect the team-up against the ruling APC.
iii. The Abubakar Atiku Effect
Former Vice president At. Niku Abubakar’s ambition to clinch presidential ticket in any party he belongs has been a major negative factor affecting that political party. His presidential ticket syndrome tore PDP apart. These will likely take place if a coalition movement is staged against APC. If there will be a primary election in that coalition, Atiku must lose. If he does, he’ll probably run to form a new party to get presidential ticket. You see, if presidential ticket is the only reason for forming a coalition, it is sure that, the coalition is dead on arrival.
iv. Bad Eggs From Other Parties
Nigeria politics is built on betrayal. President Goodluck’s regime saw the worst form of betrayal when his own party chairman and others worked against his second term bid produce Buhari. Some politicians join coalition because they are not given appointment. The grievances from other parties can affect the union.
For coalition to work, it must be be based selfless motives with national development interest as the core principle and objective for the movement. It must not be for Northern sake, Southern sake or divisional sakes. And this, judging by the Nigerian factor, is very difficult to achieve because such selfless politicians are not easily found in Nigeria. On these few points of mine, I only see a coalition movement from the point of view that one politician see it as a ladder to climb higher or increase his angle of elevation in the political ecosystem of Nigeria.
v. Partisan INEC and a Partisan Judiciary
The ruling APC has a established rigging as a way of winning. The judiciary is like arm of APC where judgements are written by judges. Unseating such a cartel requires the people coming out to strongly enact electronic voting system in the constitution blocking all loopholes that might provide APC a place to win court cases.