The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, have agreed in principle to raise oil production by an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October 2025, according to Bloomberg.
Delegates said the increase is expected to be approved following a virtual meeting on Sunday.
The move marks the beginning of the gradual return of 1.66 million bpd in production cuts that were initially slated to remain in place until the end of 2026.
This comes just weeks after the group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, shocked oil markets by fast-tracking the reinstatement of 2.2 million bpd of halted output — a year earlier than planned.
However, Bloomberg reports, the actual volume is likely to be lower than announced, as some members of the group face pressure to compensate for earlier oversupply and forgo their share of production hikes, while several countries lack spare capacity.
“The move will put increased pressure on member nations that rely on higher prices, especially those that can’t pump more.
“If ratified, the group’s decision to start unwinding its next layer of cuts also reflects a tension that has dominated oil markets for months: forecasters are issuing mounting warnings about a looming supply surplus, and yet markets have remained relatively tight over the northern hemisphere summer,” Bloomberg stated.
Why this matters
Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production rose to 1.507 million barrels per day (bpd) in July 2025, surpassing the OPEC target for the second month in a row.
Despite that progress, the country continues to face major problems such as oil theft, lack of investment in its oil facilities, and frequent damage to pipelines, issues that have often made it perform below its potential compared to other oil-producing nations.
Recently, Present Bola Tinubu claimed that the revenue target was met in August and that non-oil exports were the primary driver of this achievement.
Nigeria’s state oil company, NNPC Limited, reports that coordinated efforts by intelligence and defense agencies have nearly eliminated pipeline crude oil theft. Three years ago, only about 30% of the crude transported through certain pipelines reached export terminals, costing Nigeria billions of dollars in lost revenue and delayed investments.
This week, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 1% to $63.40 per barrel, while Brent crude also declined by 1% to $67.00 per barrel, both trading below Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has repeatedly warned that continued underperformance in the oil sector could seriously threaten the federal government’s ability to meet its planned budgetary commitments and sustain key national projects.
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