By Achile Danjuma
Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Social Media, Dada Olusegun, has pushed back against the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, over his recent remarks on Nigeria’s escalating fuel prices.
Olusegun, in a post on X on Saturday, dismissed Obi’s analysis as “wrong and embarrassing,” and advised the former Anambra State governor to refrain from commenting on matters he does not fully grasp.
The exchange stems from a statement Obi released on Thursday, where he linked Nigeria’s vulnerability to global oil price shocks to the absence of a strategic petroleum reserve and a lack of foresight by the government. Obi highlighted the sharp increase in prices, noting that petrol had jumped from under N1,000 to over N1,200 per litre in recent weeks, with diesel climbing from below N1,000 to more than N1,500. He attributed this volatility to global tensions, such as the conflict involving Iran.
Obi argued that the core problem is a failure of planning. “The reason for this is straightforward: most countries, whether they are oil-producing or non-oil-producing, maintain strategic petroleum reserves to cushion against supply or price shocks,” he stated. “This means that when there is a disruption in the global oil market, they can release part of these reserves to stabilise supply. However, Nigeria lacks such a buffer, so the impact is felt almost immediately. The underlying issue is a lack of planning.”
In his rebuttal, Olusegun countered that Obi’s focus on a strategic reserve misses the more immediate and fundamental cause: the deregulation of the downstream oil sector following the removal of the fuel subsidy by the Tinubu administration.
“The recent rise in fuel prices in Nigeria is not primarily because the country lacks a strategic petroleum reserve,” Olusegun wrote. “The more immediate factor is that the fuel market is now largely deregulated following the subsidy removal.”
He explained that in a deregulated market, pump prices are directly influenced by global forces. “In a deregulated system, petrol prices respond directly to global oil prices, exchange rates, shipping costs, and supply risks. So when geopolitical tensions involving Iran push global oil prices upward, countries that rely heavily on imported refined products like Nigeria will inevitably feel the effect at the pump. That is simply how an open market behaves.”
Olusegun further challenged Obi’s premise regarding the function of strategic reserves. He argued that even nations with vast reserves, like the United States and China, do not use them to manage routine price fluctuations. “It is also not accurate to suggest that strategic petroleum reserves are tools used to control everyday pump prices,” he said. “They are maintained primarily for serious supply emergencies—wars, embargoes, or major disruptions to global supply chains. They are not routinely deployed simply because prices move in the global market.”
While acknowledging Nigeria’s deep-seated structural issues, Olusegun contended that Obi’s framing is misleading. He pointed to the country’s chronic lack of refining capacity and heavy reliance on imported fuel as the real drivers of vulnerability, compounded by exchange rate pressures.
“Nigeria’s real challenge has always been deeper and more structural. That structural imbalance… has consistently made the country vulnerable to global price movements,” Olusegun explained. “Reducing the entire issue to ‘Nigeria failed to plan because it does not have a strategic reserve’ completely misses the broader reality. Real planning would involve expanding domestic refining capacity, strengthening supply chains, stabilising the foreign exchange environment, and maintaining consistent energy policies.”
In a final point of criticism, Olusegun reminded Obi of his own stance during the 2023 presidential campaign, noting that he had publicly pledged to remove the fuel subsidy if elected. “So the same policy framework that now allows prices to reflect market realities is one you publicly supported,” he concluded.