By Abdullahi O Haruna Haruspice
An ominous cloud of political uncertainty hangs over Kogi State as different political actors, operating through various camps and interest groups, quietly reposition ahead of what promises to be another defining political cycle. Beneath the calm exterior lies an intricate chessboard of alliances, calculations, betrayals, and strategic realignments that could fundamentally reshape the state’s political landscape.
Having lost political power, the Kogi East axis appears, for now, to be the only bloc watching events unfold from the sidelines, patiently waiting for the pendulum of history to swing once again in its favour. Their immediate influence may have waned, but in politics, today’s spectator can easily become tomorrow’s kingmaker. Their silence, therefore, should not be mistaken for political irrelevance.
The real contest presently lies between Kogi Central and Kogi West. While Kogi Central appears to be holding the ace, with the structures of state power largely within its reach, all may seem calm only on the surface. Beneath that appearance lies growing apprehension. With President Bola Ahmed Tinubu steadily consolidating his political authority at the national level, emerging alignments and shifting power equations have left many political actors within the Central axis increasingly unsettled about what the future may hold.
Kogi West, on the other hand, appears to be enjoying perhaps the most politically rewarding period in its history. The region has emerged not merely as a beneficiary of the Tinubu administration but arguably as one of its strongest pillars within North Central Nigeria. No region in Kogi State has benefited from the current federal political architecture as much as Kogi West. It possesses not only significant political capital but occupies the very nexus of strategic influence within the ruling establishment. Remove Kogi West from the current political equation, and a noticeable vacuum would inevitably be created within President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political coalition in the state.
Political observers increasingly describe the present moment as “the Okun Era.” For many within Kogi West, this is viewed as a historic opportunity that may never present itself again. Allowing this moment to slip away could mean postponing—or perhaps permanently forfeiting—the region’s long-held aspiration to produce another governor. Consequently, the quest for the Lugard House appears to have assumed the character of a collective regional project rather than merely the ambition of individual politicians.
Interestingly, political arithmetic may increasingly favour the West. Several influential stakeholders from the politically displaced Kogi East have shown signs of openness to forging what may best be described as a political marriage with the Okun axis. Their argument is rooted largely in perceptions of fairness, inclusion, and equity. They contend that the existing political arrangement has disproportionately favoured the Central axis. For instance, while Kogi East, with its nine local government areas, reportedly has barely four commissioners, Kogi West enjoys a similar number despite having fewer local government areas, whereas Kogi Central—the smallest of the three senatorial districts by local government count—is perceived to control well over fifteen commissioner-level appointments and several other strategic offices.
Whether this perception reflects political reality or simply feeds the prevailing narrative is perhaps less important than the fact that such sentiments are gaining traction across political circles. In politics, perception often becomes reality.
Consequently, subtle but significant conversations are emerging around a possible Igala-Bassa and Okun-Egbura understanding. Such an alliance, if successfully nurtured, could substantially alter the electoral mathematics of Kogi State. Electoral victories are rarely determined solely by demographics; they are often won through carefully negotiated coalitions built around shared interests and mutual political survival.
Should the much-speculated entrance of Honourable James Abiodun Faleke into the governorship equation materialise, the existing political architecture in Kogi State may be confronted with its most serious test in years. Faleke’s national political network, his proximity to the Presidency, and his enduring grassroots appeal within Kogi West would inevitably introduce fresh variables into an already volatile political environment. His entry could transform what currently appears to be quiet political manoeuvring into an open contest for supremacy.
For the ruling APC, this presents both an opportunity and a dilemma. While the party remains the dominant political force in the state, internal contradictions threaten to become its greatest vulnerability. Persistent infighting, perceived political exclusion, the suppression of dissenting voices, competing ambitions, and oversized personal egos may ultimately prove to be the party’s greatest albatross. History has repeatedly shown that political parties are rarely defeated by external opposition alone; more often, they are weakened by unresolved internal fractures.
Ultimately, Kogi’s next political chapter may not be determined merely by zoning arrangements or demographic calculations. It will be shaped by coalition-building, elite bargaining, federal influence, and the ability of political actors to balance ambition with accommodation. Those who underestimate these dynamics do so at their own peril.
Until then, the cloud of political uncertainty continues to hang heavily over the Confluence State, where every handshake conceals a calculation, every silence carries meaning, and every political movement could be the opening move in the battle for Kogi’s future.
Uncertainly Musing
Abdullahi O Haruna Haruspice is the author of The Buhari in Us, Managing Editor of the APC Progressive Magazine, anchor of the Renewed Hope National Podcast and a critical stakeholder in Kogi State