Russian President Vladimir Putin could order an attack against a NATO member as early as this autumn in an attempt to test the alliance’s resolve and create a new narrative of victory, according to US intelligence assessments.
The warning comes amid growing concerns among US and European officials that Russia may become more willing to confront NATO directly as its war in Ukraine faces increasing difficulties. A report by the Wall Street Journal said Russia’s shortage of troops, limited progress on the battlefield and continued Ukrainian attacks inside Russian territory have placed growing pressure on the Kremlin.
US officials have reportedly long believed Moscow would avoid attacking a NATO country while heavily engaged in Ukraine. However, intelligence assessments now suggest that calculation may be changing, with Russia potentially considering a limited military operation against a country on NATO’s eastern flank.
Such an operation could take different forms, including cyberattacks, the use of unidentified armed groups or a limited incursion into NATO territory. Analysts believe Moscow could seek to exploit divisions within the alliance and challenge its Article 5 commitment, which requires member states to regard an attack on one ally as an attack on all.
The intelligence assessment places the potential timeframe for such action between this autumn and 2029. NATO countries on Russia’s western flank, particularly Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are considered vulnerable, while parts of Poland close to Russia’s Kaliningrad region have also been identified as potential targets.
The possibility of a limited attack is also being linked to concerns over US military stockpiles. The Wall Street Journal, citing American officials, reported that supplies of some important missile defence systems, including Patriot and THAAD interceptors, remain under pressure after the United States’ military commitments and recent conflicts.
Former Russian opposition politician and chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov recently warned that Putin could attempt a small-scale operation against NATO territory to secure a symbolic victory. He pointed specifically to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland as possible locations.
Kasparov said that the Russian president needs a success story because the war in Ukraine has failed to provide the kind of victory narrative he requires.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has also acknowledged concerns about possible Russian military action against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region. He said any such operation was more likely to be targeted and limited rather than a large-scale invasion.
Lithuania’s Defence Minister Robert Kaunas further claimed that Russia could potentially use drones produced by Ukraine in a false-flag operation against critical infrastructure in the Baltic states.
The warnings come after several incidents involving Russian military activity around NATO countries. Russian drones have reportedly entered Romanian airspace in recent weeks, while Nordic intelligence agencies have also observed increased Russian military activity close to Finland.
Germany’s army chief, Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, said NATO members share the assessment that Russia could have the capability to launch an invasion of a NATO country by 2029.
According to Freuding, the 2029 timeframe is not simply Germany’s own prediction but is based on intelligence assessments agreed upon by NATO members.