Former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai on Thursday shared a dire economic projection for Nigeria, warning of an impending financial collapse in 2026 if urgent measures are not taken.
El-Rufai posted the article, titled ‘Nigeria 2026: The Year All Hell Breaks Loose’ on his official X handle on Friday.
The analysis, authored by Dr. Nnaoke Ufere, utilized machine learning models and economic simulations to forecast a possible breakdown of Nigeria’s economy by September 2026.
El-Rufai said Nigerians should take action now by sharing the article with members of the national and state assemblies.
According to the report, there is a 75 percent probability that Nigeria could spiral into a full-blown debt crisis, leading to a default on external obligations, a crash of the naira, and collapse of the banking system.
The forecast anticipates that Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating will be downgraded to junk status, triggering demands for immediate repayment from creditors and effectively cutting off access to external funding.
The article also warns that multilateral institutions like the World Bank and IMF, as well as bilateral lenders, may not respond swiftly enough to prevent a collapse, leaving the country in economic paralysis.
It further predicts that government revenues will be severely disrupted, especially if creditors seize oil shipment, Nigeria’s primary source of income, leading to states being unable to pay salaries or provide basic services.
The article went further to predict that in response to the funding shortfall, the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, may resort to excessive money printing, triggering hyperinflation and widespread economic hardship.
The projection also anticipates shortages of food, fuel and medicine, collapse of public infrastructure, and breakdown of law enforcement—paving the way for increased insecurity and unrest across the country.
“This is not speculation or alarmism,” the report warns. “It is a clear and present danger based on rigorous analysis and robust scenario simulations.”