The Trump administration’s recent warning that Europe must handle its own security has exposed significant gaps in the continent’s military preparedness.
This shift in U.S. priorities comes at a time when NATO is trying to bolster its defenses against potential Russian aggression.
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO devised its most extensive defense strategy since the Cold War. The plan involves deploying up to 300,000 troops to NATO’s eastern flank within 30 days and expanding that force to 800,000 within six months. However, with the U.S. stepping back, Europe is struggling to muster even 30,000 troops to maintain peace in Ukraine.
European nations have been increasing their defense budgets, but progress is slow. Defense industries are finding it difficult to ramp up production, and there’s a growing need for more military personnel. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has warned that Russia could be capable of launching an attack on European territory by 2030.
Poland, for example, is taking proactive measures. Prime Minister Donald Tusk is pushing for large-scale military training for all adult men and aims to double Poland’s army to 500,000 soldiers. Tusk stressed that if Ukraine is defeated or forced into a peace deal, Poland’s geopolitical situation would become far more precarious.
Currently, Europe, including the U.K., has around 1.5 million active-duty personnel, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. However, many of these troops cannot be deployed on the battlefield due to a lack of coordination and centralized command. Meanwhile, Russia had approximately 700,000 troops in Ukraine by the end of 2024.
In the event of a Russian attack, NATO’s top military officer would typically deploy around 200,000 U.S. troops to reinforce the 100,000 American personnel already stationed in Europe. Without U.S. support, experts estimate that Europe would need an additional 300,000 troops to fill the gap.
NATO is urging member countries to increase troop numbers but is leaving the methods to individual governments. Conscription, expanded reserves, or voluntary service are all on the table. However, NATO officials emphasize that maintaining public support for the armed forces and Ukraine is crucial, so the approach must be politically sensitive.
Europe now faces a critical decision: either significantly boost its military personnel or improve coordination among national forces to effectively respond to future threats.