US President Joe Biden announced he will not seek reelection in November on Sunday, a momentous move that will have unknown influence on Democrats’ chances this election. The decision came after weeks of political turmoil, headed off by the disastrous June 27 debate performance against former President Donald Trump that threw Biden’s future into doubt.
“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President,” Biden said in a statement. ”And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”
Calls for Biden, 81, to step aside have swirled for years, but they reached new heights in the aftermath of the debate. The Democratic Party now enters uncharted territory as it scrambles to build consensus around a new nominee ahead of the Democratic National Convention, which kicks off on Aug. 19 in Chicago; current Vice President Kamala Harris is perhaps the most obvious choice, although some Democrats are also interested in an array of governors, including California’s Gavin Newsom, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, and Kentucky’s Andy Beshear.
Even as Biden sought to show strength and energy with a volley of post-debate interviews and public appearances, Congressional Democrats and high-profile donors began backing away from the president as polling showed him slipping.By July 15, nearly two-thirds of Democrats said the president should step aside. And while Biden publicly brushed off the bad press, increasingly powerful Democrats urged him to reconsider.
The stakes of the decision reached new heights when a gunman attempted to assassinate Donald Trump at a rally on Saturday, July 13. Republicans coalesced around Trump following the attack, while Biden remained under intense scrutiny.
Adam Schiff, a top California Democrat and ally to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, called for Biden to step aside on Wednesday, July 17. Reports suggested Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House leader Hakeem Jeffries privately warned the president that staying in the race could imperil the party’s chances of controlling either chamber of Congress next year. Biden suffered a further setback when a COVID-19 diagnosis yanked him off the campaign trail.
But the decision ultimately came down to Biden; It’s almost impossible to replace nominees without their consent. Those closest to the president have long said there are only a handful of people he trusts on issues like this, notably his wife Jill and sister Valerie. Beyond his family, Semafor’s Ben Smith wrote after the debate there are probably only seven people who could convince the president to withdraw: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, and Jim Clyburn.
Title iconNOW WHAT?
Vice President Kamala Harris is perhaps the obvious choice to step up as nominee — recent polling showed her performing slightly better against Trump than Biden would — and California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan’s Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg have also been floated as possibilities.
As far as what this means for Democrats’ chances in November, that depends who you ask. As post-debate calls for Biden to step down intensified, some pundits warned voters to stick with the devil they knew. Democrats should face the hard truth that “attempting to replace Biden at the convention in August could be even more perilous than sticking with the lame horse they are riding,” Washington Post columnist Karen Tumulty wrote. She pointed out that a clear frontrunner emerging from the chaos seems far-fetched, and even if the party could settle on one, they wouldn’t have endured the rigorous tests of a national primary.
But as Financial Times columnist Edward Luce put it, the risks of Biden bowing out were already known, but now, “the upsides are suddenly clearer.” Everything about this race is unprecedented, he argued. What’s one more variable?