Nigeria may need to grow at an annual rate of 21.9 percent to achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2031, according to a new projection by Afrinvest West Africa Limited.
The projection, released in its 20th Nigeria Banking Sector Report 2025, explained that the goal could also be achieved with a stronger naira at a slower pace of growth.
The firm based its forecast on the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which placed Nigeria’s economic size in 2024 at N372.8 trillion. This figure equals $251 billion when calculated using the average foreign exchange rate of N1,484.99 per dollar. By comparison, under the previous base year, the GDP stood at N277.5 trillion, showing a 34.4 percent rise after the rebasing exercise.
Afrinvest noted that while the federal government has expressed confidence in the ability of the banking industry to drive the $1 trillion target, several hurdles still weigh on growth. These hurdles, if not addressed, may slow down the pace of expansion needed to reach the target within the set timeframe.
The report was presented during an event that also marked the company’s 30th anniversary. The gathering brought together market leaders, policymakers, and investors. During the presentation, the Group Managing Director of Afrinvest West Africa Limited, Dr. Ike Chioke, spoke on the company’s journey of three decades, which he described as one of resilience, innovation, and continuous effort to shape Nigeria’s financial market.
The report concluded with a call for stronger reforms and more transparent governance as tools that could push the economy towards faster growth and ensure Nigeria attains the $1 trillion milestone by 2031.