An oil sector reform coalition has commended the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) for the “historic turnaround” in Nigeria’s crude oil production trajectory, saying recent disclosures from the Commission show that the country is now firmly on the path to achieving its long-stated output ambition.
In a statement on Wednesday, the Oil & Gas Governance Reform Alliance (OGRA), led by its Executive Director, Dr. Ibrahim Kalango, said the revelation that Nigeria’s crude oil output has on several occasions exceeded 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year marks “a decisive break from years of stagnation, operational setbacks and investor hesitation”.
OGRA said the series of improvements announced by the Commission such as the rising rig activity, renewed investor confidence, multi-billion-dollar Final Investment Decisions, and the approval of Field Development Plans worth about $20 billion in the last ten months, collectively prove that reforms in the upstream sector are “finally yielding the scale of results Nigeria has been waiting for”.
“The NUPRC has demonstrated that Nigeria’s production capacity was never the issue. What was lacking was regulatory leadership, operational focus, and the courage to enforce discipline across the value chain. Over the last year, under Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, the Commission has begun to stabilise an industry long defined by uncertainty,” the statement reads.
OGRA added that Komolafe’s recent disclosures show that Nigeria is now clearly on track to meet its 2.5 million bpd production target in 2026, a development the group described as “the most credible pathway to revenue recovery and macroeconomic stability” since the oil price crash era.
“Exceeding 1.7 million barrels per day multiple times is not just a statistical milestone; It is evidence that Nigeria is regaining the confidence of producers and investors. For the first time in years, the 2.5 million bpd target is not aspirational rhetoric, it is attainable,” Kalango said in the statement.
The group said the near-70 rig count recorded this year, with more than 40 rigs currently active, reflects the strongest level of upstream activity in nearly a decade and confirms that investor sentiment is shifting in Nigeria’s favour.
The coalition also applauded the Commission’s announcement of a new oil licensing round scheduled for December 1, 2025, describing it as “a proactive step that positions Nigeria to consolidate its reserve base, attract fresh capital, and compete effectively in a global industry undergoing rapid transformation”.
According to OGRA, predictable bid rounds, transparent processes and regulatory certainty are essential to sustaining the momentum already established.
“The Commission’s commitment to openness and global competitiveness is exactly what the sector needs. Nigeria cannot afford opaque or inconsistent licensing processes. The stability offered by the NUPRC is restoring credibility,” the statement added.
OGRA also emphasised the role of accurate reporting and national messaging in shaping investor perception, saying confidence in Nigeria’s upstream sector is influenced not only by geology and policy but also by “how the country projects its progress”.
The group urged the Commission to sustain its reform drive, saying the recent gains prove that Nigeria’s petroleum sector can still deliver transformative value with the right leadership.