In a closely watched and hard-fought election, conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki has defeated liberal rival Rafał Trzaskowski to become Poland’s next president, dealing a sharp blow to the centrist government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Nawrocki, a historian with deep ties to Poland’s populist right, secured just over 50% of the vote in the runoff election, narrowly edging out Trzaskowski, the popular mayor of Warsaw. The result surprised many observers and has major implications for the political direction of the country, especially as it maintains the presidency under the influence of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party.
The new president-elect has long been aligned with PiS, though he officially ran as an independent. His victory continues the party’s decade-long hold on the presidency and hands him the power of veto, a crucial tool that could stall or block many of Tusk’s reforms. Tusk returned to power after ousting PiS from government in 2023 and has since been working to dismantle many of its policies and regain international confidence in Poland’s democratic institutions.
Nawrocki’s rise marks a sharp shift in momentum for the conservative movement in Poland. He was not the frontrunner when the campaign began. His image was clouded by controversies, including questions about property use, connections to local criminal circles, and past participation in violent clashes among football hooligans. Despite these stories, he gained late support from far-right groups and prominent figures at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), which recently held major events in Poland.
His campaign was heavy on nationalist rhetoric. Nawrocki pledged to curb migration, criticized the European Union’s role in Polish affairs, and leaned into his Catholic beliefs. His message resonated with a segment of the electorate that feels disconnected from Brussels and suspicious of liberal elites.
Nawrocki’s background includes leadership of the Museum of the Second World War and the Institute of National Remembrance. Both institutions became more politically charged under PiS, which has sought to shape historical narratives in line with its nationalistic agenda. These roles helped solidify Nawrocki’s reputation among conservatives as a defender of Polish identity and heritage.
His win represents a setback for Tusk, who had hoped a Trzaskowski presidency would allow him to accelerate reforms and restore judicial independence, press freedoms, and cultural autonomy. Instead, Nawrocki is expected to follow the path of outgoing President Andrzej Duda, who frequently used his veto to block Tusk’s initiatives, including laws aimed at improving access to contraception and strengthening hate crime protections.
With the presidency now in the hands of a political rival, Tusk faces a more complicated path forward. Any efforts to roll back PiS-era policies will likely be met with resistance from Nawrocki, who can block legislation and delay progress on critical issues.
While the vote was razor-thin, it sends a clear message: Poland remains deeply divided. The election revealed that nationalist and populist sentiments still have strong traction in parts of the country, despite a shift toward centrism in recent parliamentary elections.
Nawrocki’s success could also energize similar movements across Europe. His close ties with US conservatives and public support from President Donald Trump suggest a growing alliance between right-wing factions on both sides of the Atlantic. During the campaign, Nawrocki visited Washington and spoke favorably of Trump’s foreign policy, a move that likely boosted his appeal among Polish voters wary of deeper EU integration.
As Nawrocki prepares to take office, all eyes are on how this new chapter will unfold. The stage is set for renewed political clashes in Warsaw, with the future of Poland’s judiciary, media, and international standing hanging in the balance.