Consumer confidence in the United States has dropped to its lowest point since the early days of the pandemic, according to a new report released Tuesday.
Americans are increasingly uneasy about the economy as ongoing trade tensions, rising prices, and political uncertainty stir fresh concerns about inflation and a possible downturn.
The latest survey from the Conference Board revealed a steep decline in consumer sentiment for April, with the overall confidence index falling nearly eight points to 86. This marks the weakest reading since May 2020. The expectations component, which tracks how people feel about the near future, dropped even further — hitting its lowest point in over a decade.
More Americans now believe a recession is likely within the next year, the highest share expressing that view since early 2023. Many respondents cited President Donald Trump’s trade policies as a key source of concern, particularly the impact of new tariffs on prices. These trade tensions have become a central issue for consumers who fear rising costs and slower economic growth.
Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has rolled out an aggressive trade agenda, including new tariffs that have unsettled both financial markets and everyday Americans. His administration has also taken tough stances on immigration and government spending, moves that have added to the sense of instability for some.
The decline in confidence hasn’t yet been matched by a pullback in consumer spending — the engine of the U.S. economy — but that could change. Recent history has shown that Americans often keep spending even when their economic outlook darkens. This was the case in both 2022 and 2023, when high inflation and political gridlock didn’t stop people from traveling or attending large events.
Still, Federal Reserve officials are growing cautious. A new study by Fed economists suggests that people may be overestimating the impact of inflation on their finances, which affects how they answer surveys about the economy. But if pessimism begins to influence actual spending patterns, the risk of a slowdown could increase.
One Fed official, Thomas Barkin, recently expressed concern about the public mood, noting that more people seem worried about job security and the rising cost of living. These anxieties could influence the broader economy if they begin to affect real decisions on spending and saving.
Inflation expectations are also creeping up again. The Conference Board found that consumers now expect prices to rise 7% over the next year — the highest level in more than a year. Similar trends have been tracked by other surveys, showing that inflation remains at the center of economic unease.
With the second half of 2025 approaching, attention is turning to what lies ahead. While Trump’s trade battle could cool consumer activity in the short term, there’s hope that fresh tax cuts expected from Congress could provide a boost in 2026. But until then, growing anxiety about inflation and economic instability continues to weigh heavily on American consumers.