Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th president of the United States is historic, marking him as only the second U.S. president, after Grover Cleveland in 1892, to serve non-consecutive terms. However, his second presidency brings uncertainty, particularly for Nigeria, given his history of transactional foreign relations and ultra-nationalist policies.
Trump’s Stance on Nigeria: Transactional and Critical
During his first term, Trump famously referred to Nigeria as a “shithole” country and criticized it for corruption. His approach to Nigeria was purely transactional, favoring economic gains for the U.S. over fostering deeper bilateral ties.
For example, while the Obama administration withheld military equipment sales to Nigeria over human rights concerns, Trump prioritized arms sales. In 2018, he approved the sale of 12 A-29 Super Tucano aircraft to Nigeria during President Muhammadu Buhari’s visit to the White House. However, this deal came with Trump’s insistence on trade reciprocity, emphasizing Nigeria’s purchase of American agricultural products and other goods.
Economic Tensions: Trade and Oil
Trump’s economic policies may pose significant challenges to Nigeria. Under his “America First” agenda, he has promised to impose tariffs on foreign countries to boost U.S. revenue. Nigeria, which enjoys a trade surplus with the U.S. due to its crude oil exports, may face pressure to increase imports of American goods to balance trade.
Additionally, Trump’s plans to “drill baby drill” and flood the global oil market could drive down oil prices. Given Nigeria’s reliance on crude oil revenues to fund its ₦49.7 trillion budget, a price slump would severely strain the economy.
U.S.-China Rivalry and Nigeria’s Position
Geopolitics will also shape Trump’s engagement with Nigeria. His administration has signaled less tolerance for countries perceived as aligning with China, the U.S.’s primary global rival. Nigeria’s recent renewal of a 15-billion-yuan currency swap agreement with China, aimed at reducing reliance on the dollar, could provoke Trump’s ire. His administration may pressure Nigeria to prioritize U.S. trade and align its foreign policy with American interests.
Implications for Aid and Trade Agreements
Trump’s mercantilist mindset could see Nigeria lose preferential trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) unless it opens its markets further to U.S. exports. Furthermore, Trump’s claims about the “large” aid America provides to Nigeria could translate into reduced assistance unless Nigeria aligns more closely with U.S. priorities.
Conclusion: Challenges Ahead
Donald Trump’s second term is likely to bring increased scrutiny and demands for economic and strategic alignment from Nigeria. His policies may strain Nigeria-U.S. relations, particularly if Nigeria continues to strengthen ties with China and maintain trade imbalances. As Nigeria navigates its path, balancing its economic and geopolitical interests will be critical to minimizing the potential fallout from Trump’s more aggressive and transactional presidency.