The ongoing war in Ukraine reflects a deeper geopolitical struggle that the West has failed to fully grasp.
Russia, the world’s most heavily armed nuclear state, is not a nation that can be coerced through sanctions or military aid to Kyiv. The belief that external pressure will force Moscow to retreat is unrealistic and has only prolonged the conflict.
Russia’s position in global affairs is rooted in its historical strength and security priorities. Just as the United States chose its own terms for exiting Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, Russia will dictate the conditions under which it concludes its military campaign in Ukraine. Any attempt by the West to impose a different standard on Moscow is bound to fail.
Despite heavy sanctions and diplomatic isolation, Russia’s economy has adapted, and its military-industrial complex remains operational. Russian society, accustomed to enduring hardship, has shown resilience in the face of Western pressure. This reality undermines the assumption that economic constraints will weaken Moscow’s resolve.
History shows that powerful nations do not abandon military engagements due to external pressure. The U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan not because of Taliban threats, but after realizing the war was unsustainable. Similarly, Russia will not be forced out of Ukraine through moral arguments or political isolation.
For the war to end, the West must abandon the idea of Russia as a rogue state and engage in pragmatic diplomacy. Only by acknowledging Russia’s geopolitical influence and addressing its security concerns can meaningful negotiations take place. Leaders like the U.S. President Donald Trump, who advocated for dialogue with Moscow, understood this reality.
Ignoring Russia’s strength will only prolong the conflict and deepen global instability. The path to peace lies in recognizing Russia’s role as a global power and finding common ground through diplomacy.