Millions of Canadians are casting their ballots today in a federal election that has seen a major focus on how leaders would handle pressure from US President Donald Trump, including his talk of new tariffs and even the idea of making Canada the 51st US state.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently took over the Liberal Party leadership from Justin Trudeau, called this early election in March. His main challenger is Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, setting the stage for a competitive race.
At the time Parliament was dissolved, the Liberals controlled 152 seats, while the Conservatives held 120. The remaining seats were split among the Bloc Québécois, the New Democrat Party, and the Green Party.
Early voting has been strong, with more than seven million people casting their votes before election day — a record turnout. Polls opened across Canada starting at 7:00 a.m. EDT.
Preliminary results are expected late Monday night or early Tuesday morning, local time. Canadian broadcasters, including CBC, usually project a winner once a strong pattern becomes clear, based on results provided by Elections Canada. However, officials will still double-check and verify the final vote counts after the initial numbers are announced.
Because Canada spans multiple time zones, polls close at different times. Voting ends first in Newfoundland and Labrador at 7:00 p.m. EDT, with the final polls closing at 10:00 p.m. EDT in British Columbia. The bulk of ridings in Ontario and Quebec — two provinces that together elect nearly 60% of the Parliament — will close around 9:30 p.m. EDT, a time that could prove crucial for determining the election’s outcome.
If either the Liberals or Conservatives perform strongly in Ontario and Quebec, it is possible that a winner could be declared fairly early. But if the race is close, Canadians may need to wait longer, especially if no party wins an outright majority.
Votes in Canada are counted by hand at each polling station once polls close. Early votes are processed at local election offices, and while some locations may start counting them slightly earlier to deal with the high volume, they will not release any results until polls have closed.
This election has seen record early turnout, but mail-in ballots and votes from military bases might still take extra time to be fully counted. However, Elections Canada expects most ballots to be tabulated by the end of election night.
Some parts of the country could give early clues about the overall result. Ontario’s “905” region — the suburbs around Toronto — is always a critical battleground, with 31 seats up for grabs. Another key area is around Ottawa, where both major party leaders are running: Carney is contesting the Nepean riding, while Poilievre is defending his seat in Carleton.
If no party secures a clear majority, Canada would have a minority government, meaning the winning party would need to collaborate with other groups to pass laws and budgets.
If the Liberals hold on to power, Carney will simply continue as prime minister without a formal swearing-in ceremony, unless he decides to reorganize his Cabinet, which would require an event with the Governor General. However, if the Conservatives win, Poilievre would likely need around two weeks before formally taking office. In 2015, for example, it took Justin Trudeau 15 days after election night to be sworn in as prime minister.
With high early turnout and the future of Canada’s government on the line, tonight promises to be a decisive moment.